# How to handle a disaster Before describing a large-scale disaster, we must understand the natural design of supply chains. ## Supply Chains A supply chain is large-scale system that follows a general flow from extraction to consumption: 1. Raw materials are harvested/extracted/mined/farmed from nature. 2. A [logistics](logistics.md) group (often by truck, but also by ship or rail) takes it to another place for refining. 3. The thing is refined into something more useful (e.g., coal into carbon rods). 4. Repeat Steps 2 and 3 (with other things going through Steps 1 through 3) until it's a finished product for consumers. 5. Send the finished goods to a distributor via logistics (e.g., trucking, rail, ship). 6. The distributor sends things to vendors as requested/needed. 7. The vendors sell their goods to consumers (i.e., most of us for most things). The beauty of this system is that it's [not centralized](jobs-specialization.md), so it's relatively easy for any step of the chain to receive different inputs (e.g., processing soy milk instead of cow's milk) or send different outputs (e.g., ship to an online instead of in-person wholesaler). If anything bad happens to any part of the system (e.g., a mine caves in), there are usually alternatives to a primary source of something. - Sometimes the supplies get more expensive (extra shipping costs, international tariffs, etc.) through [decreased supply](economics.md), but the supply chain maintains itself as long as there's a means to send the products and consumers are willing to buy them. ## Supply Chain Failure In the smallest sense, a personal crisis is never really a breakdown of any supply chain: - A house fire or significant plumbing failure - Thieves breaking in and stealing things - Lightning or some other natural disaster striking no more than a few houses - [Conflicts](people-5_conflicts.md) among people which end with someone [getting hurt](body-firstaid.md) or [killed](hardship-death.md) Many people are prepared for personal crises (e.g., [insurance](money-insurance.md)), but not much worse. A supply chain temporarily fails when entire communities are affected: - Natural disasters like earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, and tornadoes. - Somewhat man-made disasters like pandemics, power plant shutdowns, and industrial accidents. - Local small-scale [political](politics-conservativeliberal.md) instability like a media panic, terrorism, or rioting. - Political instability in neighboring countries that were formerly trading freely. - Panics about apocalyptic situations or disasters, irrespective of a legitimate disaster. Short-term disasters simply require [short-term preparation](hardship-disaster-1_short.md). On the other hand, some disasters are long-term: - Large-scale natural disasters that destroy most of the infrastructure (like a Category 5 hurricane). - Large-scale pandemics that kill a significant proportion of the people. - Political revolution, such as a new government seizing power or a coup. - [War](people-conflicts-war.md) with neighboring countries, especially with long-term effects like landmines and nuclear fallout. Finally, any aspect of civilization in a society will collapse when 5 conditions occur at once: 1. People make enough impact on the ecosystem that it changes to [that culture's](people-culture.md) disadvantage. 2. The [weather](science-earth-weather.md) shifts unfavorably to that culture. 3. That [group of people](groups-large.md) pull away from mutually beneficial relationships with friendly groups. 4. Relative military strength worsens that group's relationships with [other hostile groups](people-conflicts-war.md). 5. The group uses [deconstructive or short-term solutions](mgmt-badsystems.md) to solve its problems. ## Over-planning We tend to preoccupy ourselves with unlikely events and ignore likely ones, and fiction often makes our expectations of disasters even more ridiculous: - Specific viruses that uniquely mutate/kill humanity (e.g., The Walking Dead). - Tyrannical government that radically changes the [sociopolitical landscape](groups-large.md) (e.g., Nineteen Eighty Four, Brave New World). - Global thermonuclear [war](people-conflicts-war.md) (e.g, Doctor Strangelove, Fallout). - [AI](computers-ai.md)/robots that become sentient and rapidly decide to destroy humanity (e.g, Terminator). - Extraterrestrials that invade earth (e.g, War of the Worlds, Independence Day). - Absurdly violent natural disasters (e.g, 2012, The Day After Tomorrow). - Huge interstellar events that render earth barely inhabitable (e.g, The Wandering Earth). Dwelling on long-term disasters will utterly destroy *any* satisfaction you may find in life: - You only need to know what to *generally* do, since it's impossible to plan for all possible long-term disasters. - Further, focusing on worst-case scenarios tends to make us more unreasonable (and sometimes violent), which can sabotage *everyone's* [happiness](mind-feelings-happiness.md). To counter anxiety, we must focus only on what will *likely* happen, then worry about the unlikely things if they arise: - You can't be prepared for all possible circumstances, but you must be willing and able to [adapt your lifestyle](habits.md) when adverse circumstances arise. - We expect to live indefinitely, but we can only stockpile for months, any anything further is mentally unbalanced and [expensive](money-1_why.md) hoarding. - Each disaster is uniquely different, so your ability to [creatively](mind-creativity.md) improvise is usually more important than stockpiling. - Nothing can *precisely* prepare you for what may come, so worry more about what you can control, and resign the rest to [fate](unknown.md). Apocalypse fiction often romanticizes antisocial behavior (since it often [markets](marketing.md) to that crowd), but other people are your most powerful resource: - Any group of people between 2 and 30 can *easily* distribute roles, protect each other, and start [specializing](jobs-specialization.md) (with more people meaning more specialization). - Stay [friends](people-4_friends.md) with your neighbors, since they'll be more available than response teams. - Find people in your community who have the same sane, risk-averse attitude as you. Be very cautious about the antisocial "prepper" culture: - Many preppers are mentally unwell, and often sabotage [success in civilization](success-1_why.md) for a theoretical disaster. - Most preppers are also hoarders, and their [disorganization](organization.md) will make it impossible to handle a legitimate crisis. - In the event of a disaster, they'll frequently be completely focused on themselves, so they'll likely be useless for any group tasks and will disrupt the harmony of [everyone working together](mgmt-3_teams.md) to prevent any further crisis. ## Cover every likely event Have a pre-planned escape and disaster routine for all likely events: - Plan for the most likely disasters that may happen in your region. - Ask where you'd go and what you'd need to bring. Make survival "go bags" for each member of the household, with plans for various crises: - Have meetings to discuss likely possible events with your household and neighbors. - At the end of the discussion, everyone should feel they're ready to approach a disaster. Your mental state is just as important as your physical preparedness: 1. Visualize and imagine the disasters that may arise. 2. Imagine what you will do in those situations, and how specific decisions may or may not work. 3. After thinking deeply on the subject, find closure in *not* thinking about it anymore because you know what you need to do. 4. [Train your body](body-3_exercise.md) in advance for the foreseen risks which may arise. 5. If you're exposed to risks, breathe slowly to calm yourself and [maintain awareness](awareness.md). 6. Assert what you know you're capable of to suppress the [fears](mind-feelings-fear.md) that arise, which may boil over into a physical yell. Plan for the worst likely event, and [forgive yourself](mind-feelings-happiness-stress.md) if something happens you had no control over. Be prepared for [death](hardship-death.md), for either yourself or anyone you love, and [learn to recover from whatever happens](hardship.md). ## General prep All of your planning will definitely take money, and any emergency will need money until you find a new routine, so [learn to manage money well](money-1_why.md) and make a [survival budget](money-3_budget.md). Adopt a relatively minimalist lifestyle *before* a crisis happens: - You don't need to sell all your possessions and [live in an RV](home-rv.md), but have a clear distinction between your "must go with" and "can leave behind" possessions. - Consider what it will take to replace any of your possessions, and consider making a "must replace" list. Broaden your [investing](money-investing.md) horizons and consider various forms of [insurance](money-insurance.md) as "disaster investment". Manage risks with a wide variety of easily adaptable tools: - Maintain your cash in multiple unrelated banks, such as a large national bank and a local credit union. - Keep at least some of your money across different foreign currencies, in case a government suffers mass inflation. - [Education](understanding.md), specifically lower-tech skills you like that aren't your [normal career](jobs-1_why.md): - Woodworking/carpentry - Metalworking, knife-making, gunsmithing - Glassblowing, pottery - Sewing embroidery, leather crafting, toy making - Amateur electronics, robotics, [computer programming](computers-programming.md) - Farming or hunting - Get small, easily tradable, permanently useful commodities, such as hard liquor, lighters, ammunition, and cigarettes. - Liquor (particularly vodka) also has antiseptic and herbal medicinal properties. Avoid the over-hyped survival pitfalls: - Don't buy gold/silver/platinum. - Ads about buying a commodity are because people make money from it. - Keeping bars of precious metal at your house is a *very* real risk to where [insurance](money-insurance.md) companies won't adequately cover it, so keep them in bank safe deposit boxes (~$20/year) if you trust banks. - Gold is difficult to break apart for staples like bread, so only use it to store and move money large-scale. - Cryptocurrencies, since you should [know what they are](computers-blockchain.md) before investing in them. - Commodities and futures, which [are legitimate investments](money-investing.md), but you can *really* lose money if you don't know what you're doing. While you have time, make a critical decision *right now* to stay or go in a long-term disaster: - If you'd prefer to [stay in the area](hardship-disaster-2_long-stay.md), buy a plot of land that's relatively remote from city centers and make it your "base". - If you want to [stay mobile](hardship-disaster-3_long-go.md), get a sophisticated framework to keep yourself connected to the social grid of society as-you-go. You can't be prepared for all possibilities at the same time: - Building out a nuclear fallout shelter isn't useful if you have to flee the country. - The most important survival skill is understanding [what to do in specific situations](hardship-disaster-survival.md), and a lot of it comes from direct experience. No matter what, everyone can benefit from simple [short-term plans](hardship-disaster-1_short.md). Check out the [disaster checklist](hardship-disaster-checklist.md) for a complete list of things to buy. ## Staying alert and connected Your ability to [creatively improvise](mind-creativity.md) and [stay aware of your surroundings](awareness.md) is the most important set of skills you'll need in the event of a disaster. - To see things at a distance, look through a pinhole with your fingers. - See things in low-light situations by using your peripheral vision. Beyond that, the ability to get help and connect with others to solve issues is just as essential. - Even if you have no signal whatsoever on your cell phone, dialing the [emergency line](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_emergency_telephone_numbers) can still connect through other channels like military bands. ## Recovering from the disaster Whether a disaster was man-made or natural, it's utterly devastating to experience the loss of your [home](home-housekeeping.md) or all your possessions: - It's even *more* difficult if you've only lost a significant chunk of your things because it's easy to imagine the rest going just as quickly. The [trauma](hardship-ptsd.md) will likely follow you for years, so accept the shock as a part of your life for a while. Try to rebuild, and consider [how to protect yourself](safety-security.md) the next time it may happen. Focus on the present moment and individual [tasks](success-4_routine.md), and you'll get through it in time.