# List of universal laws and axioms - large-scale rules Ashby's Law of Requisite Variety - The number of unique states to control something is always more than the number of unique states of the thing being controlled. Bastiat's Principle - While breaking things causes what appears to be an economic benefit in the resolution, it also causes unseen economic loss. Beckstrom's Law/Metcalfe's Law - The value of a network is approximately the square of the users: each individual element/user's interactions added to that network, added together with every other element/user's interactions. Bowden's Law - After failing a test based on a theory, it's always possible to tweak the theory to prove that the test would have failed. Dead Sea Effect - The quality of technical workers in a group is often inversely proportional to their time in the organization. First Adopters Rule - The first pioneers to something new will reap the greatest rewards, with decreasingly fewer rewards by future adopters all the way down to when the space is filled up. Gibrat's Law - Groups grow proportionally, no matter their size. Graham's Addiction Axiom - In any [free market](money-economics.md), products become more [addictive](addiction.md). Hickam's Dictum - For multiple issues, several simple explanations are better than an odd circumstance that explains all of them. Hutber's Law - Improvements in a system hide other parts that are decaying. Law of Demeter - The best groups come from each individual only knowing a portion of the whole, and with everyone only communicating with their nearby associates. Gall's Law - A complex system that works always comes from a simple system that works. Lamarck's First Law - Components of a system that aren't used are slowly discarded. Larrabee's Law - Half of everything taught in a classroom is wrong, and education is figuring out which half. Little's Law - The average number of elements in a stable system in a given time are their average arrival rate multiplied by their average time in the system. Littlewood's Law - With a large enough sample size, miracles happen once a month. Magus' Correlation - A culture's complexity is directly correlated to the number of resources available to it. Malthusian Growth Model - Large-scale things grow exponentially over time. Monolithic Outsider Effect - Every outsider of a group imagines a group to be single-minded, and that's because members try to hide their perpetual power struggles. Optimal Fragmentation Principle - People are most creative when there's a moderate level of division that isn't severe enough to be destructive and isn't mild enough to create complacency. Orgel's First Rule - Spontaneous processes will create spontaneous solutions. Ostrom's Law - Something that works in practice can work in a theoretical model. Reed's Law - The usefulness of a network scales exponentially with its size. Say's Law - Things are scarce relative to other things, so there's never really "too much" of everything at once. Sowa's Law of Standards - When a [large organization](groups-large.md) uses a system for doing something, everyone will improvise a simpler system for doing that thing. Stein's Law - If something can't go on forever, it'll stop, and there's zero need to make it stop. Tragedy of the Commons - Community property deteriorates worse than private property. YAGNI / You Ain't Gonna Need It - It's only worth the time to add things as you need them, not as you imagine you'll need them. Zipf's Law/Lotka's Law - The more an individual has something, the less likely other individuals will share that quantity. ## Large systems - social interactions Bobby Knight Problem - Large-scale leaders draw people around them who protect their [power](power-types.md). Bullwhip/Forrester Effect - As something ripples outward from a cause, its effect becomes more radical and unpredictable. Dunbar's Number - A person can only maintain stable social relationships up to a limit (~100-250). Economist Effect - When we understand a one-paragraph summary of a concept, we often believe we understand how to work with that concept. Elliott Wave Principle - Large groups tend to cycle between optimism and cynicism. Jevons Paradox - The more efficient people are with a resource, the more they consume that resource. Joy's Law in Management - Most of the smartest people aren't in your [group](groups-large.md). Kondratiev Wave - Every large-scale system cycles up and down with a generally predictable flow. Linus' Law/Orgel's Second Rule - Given enough people, every problem is petty. - Sunil's Law - Given enough people and information, everything will be misunderstood. Marchetti's Constant - People are only willing to travel up to 1 hour each day, or a half-hour on a two-way trip (e.g., commute). Marauder Effect - When comparatively comfortable people become instantly deprived of resources, they panic and start attacking others to get what they need Mooers' Law - People only gather information from a system if it's less trouble than not knowing. Orgel's Second Rule - The collective system is smarter than anyone in it. Poe's Law - Every parody will eventually be mistaken by someone else as truth. Putt's Law - Managers don't understand technical matters, and technical people don't manage. - Putt's Corollary - Every technical hierarchy develops an inversion of competence. Reilly's Law of Retail Gravitation - People tend to consume at the largest supplier. Rothbard's Law - Everyone has a specific, specialized weakness. Zapruder Effect - With enough people witnessing an event, there is enough information and talent to reconstitute the truth of the event from many angles. ## Large projects Akin's Seventh Law of Spacecraft Design - At the beginning of an effort, the person who most wants to lead the project will be the least qualified for it. Box's Law / All Models Are Wrong - All system models are wrong, but some are useful. Brooks' Law - Adding more people to a late [creative](mind-creativity.md) project stalls it further. Cheops Law - Everything is built late or over budget. Conway's Law - Any creation made by an organization reflects that organization's structure. Dilbert Principle - The most ineffective workers are moved to where they can damage things the least: management. Economies of Scale - Things get cheaper per-item when you make a lot of them. Eroom's Law - Over time, new drugs are pricier and slower to discover, despite developments in technology. The opposite of Moore's Law. Gustafson-Barsis Law - If a project is big enough, it has repetitive parts to it that can be handed off to multiple workers at once. Henshaw's Law - Success often depends on knowing who to blame. Norman Augustine's Fifth Law - 1/10 of the participants produce >1/3 of the output, and increasing the participants only reduces the average output. Norman Augustine's Seventh Law - Overhead is more expensive relative to cost when the business base is decreased, but more expensive overall when increased. Norman Augustine's Eighth Law - Cost estimates are typically performed by people who are awful at cost estimates. Norman Augustine's Twelfth Law - Building bad products costs more in the long term. Parkinson's Law of Triviality/Sayre's Law - We feel the intensity of something proportional to its insignificance, so groups spend most of their resources on unimportant details. Poisson's Law of Large Numbers - The more samples measured, the closer the average represents an accurate estimation. Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureaucracy - The people devoted to an organization will slowly gain more control than the people devoted to that organization's purpose. Price's Law - The square root of the number of people in a group do 50% of the work: - 10 people do 50% of the work in a 100-person group. - 50 people do 50% of the work in a 2,500-person group. Swanson's Law - Every time solar cell manufacturing is doubled, solar cells get 20% cheaper to make. Wike's Law of Low Odd Primes - If the number of classifications of something is a low, odd, prime number (e.g., 3, 5, 7, 11, etc.), then it's not taking everything into account. ## Communication-specific Betteridge's Law of Headlines - Any headline framed as a question can be answered with "no". Boghossian Principle - Any system that forbids open conversation about that system's core problems can't be trusted. Brandolini's Law - Refuting lies takes dramatically more work than promoting them. Broadway Effect - Media adaptations compensate for their inferior aspects by overemphasizing the parts they're good at. Celine's Second Law - Communication only happens among equals. Chris Carter Effect - If people conclude others won't finish what they're trying to say, they'll stop paying attention. Fleeting Demographic Rule - Most things are safe to repeat after a few years of not expressing it. Frege's Principle - The meaning of a complex idea/expression is each meaning of its simpler expressions and the rules that combine it. Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect - People will disbelieve a publication, but will believe the next article in that publication if they're not an expert in it. NASCAR Theory - If nothing exciting is going on, people will find enjoyment in watching other people risk dying. Norman Augustine's Ninth Law - Acronyms and abbreviations make simple ideas feel profound. Price's Square Root Law - The square root of the total number of authors contribute half the content to a publication. Sarnoff's Law - A broadcast network's value is proportional to its number of consumers. Wiki Rule - Every interest, no matter how narrow, will attract people who will build a gigantic repository of information about it. Wiio's First Law - Communication always fails, but sometimes looks like it doesn't. Wiio's Second Law - People will always take things the worst possible way. Wiio's Third Law - People understand your message better than you. Wiio's Fourth Law - More communication creates more and faster confusion. Wiio's Seventh Law - The more important something is, the easier you'll forget something important about it. ### Story/publicity-specific Charlie Kirk Effect - When a Christian is publicly killed, many other Christians become more faithful. Chekov's Gun - Good stories remove all nonessential elements. Narrative Gravity Law - People are drawn to [stories](stories-why.md) that skew facts proportional to how many people believe those stories. Seinfeld is Unfunny - Entertaining stories are less entertaining once they become popular. Streisand Effect - Hiding or removing information will often backfire and make it *more* public. Wiio's Fifth Law - Mass communication is more focused on [appearances](people-image-why.md) than [reality](reality.md). Wiio's Sixth Law - The more information travels, the less important it is. Yoga Effect - An obscure, mundane trend somewhat connected to a religious culture will become more religious as later generations revisit the trend ## Economics-specific Baumol's Cost Disease - In low-productivity jobs, the workers can simply jump to higher-productivity jobs whenever they want more money, so hiring managers have to pay more for those jobs over time. Efficient-Market Hypothesis - The general cost of things reflects all the information available to everyone. Doctorow's Axiom - Any intermediary that adds value will decrease the value they add once they're established, first with their supplier, then with their consumer. Elon Market Hypothesis - People invest in popular things because popular people invest in those popular things. Hotelling's Law - Sometimes, competitors will try to make their products as identical as possible. Levine's Boredom Markets Hypothesis - People make more exchanges if it's more fun and there's nothing else as fun. Okun's Law - When unemployment goes up by 1%, everyone outputs goods and services less by 2%. Substitution Effect - By paying people to not work and taxing people who do work, people will be twice as likely to not work. Third-Party Payer Problem - When a third party is involved in a two-party transaction, the costs slowly increase as the direct connection between the first two parties decreases. Wagner's Law - The more [technology](technology.md) a country adopts, the bigger its [government](politics-systems.md) gets. ## Society/history-specific 5% Rule - In any group, about 3-5% of people are absolutely horrible. Avatar Paradox - When a product becomes so successful that everyone consumes it, it has no cultural relevance. Briffault's Law - Women's [choices](mind-decisions.md) in men determine what [families](people-family.md) are made. Broken Windows Theory - Visible signs of crime or destruction (like broken windows) lead to further and worse of them. Clarke's First Law - An old scientist is probably right about things that he says are possible, but probably wrong about those he says aren't. Flynn Effect - Across decades, the average IQ scores of everyone in developing societies goes up. Gompertz-Makeham Law of Mortality - When more people are dying of problems from old age, other deaths are statistically irrelevant. Kranzberg's Fifth Law of Technology - While all history is relevant, technology history is most relevant. Neuhaus' Law - If conventional things become optional, people eventually condemn them. Norman Augustine's Tenth Law - Counterintuitively, bullfights are won by people, and people fights are won by lawyers. Robin Hood Effect - If [rules](people-rules.md) are in place to redistribute [power](power.md), the powerful will redirect their efforts around those rules and the weaker will be hurt *worse* than if those rules weren't in place. Stigler's Law - Discoveries aren't named after their original discoverer. Teeter's Law - The oldest language of a group of languages always happens to be the one you're an expert in. Tytler's Civilization Cycle - Every free society cycles through: 1. Bondage 2. Spiritual faith 3. Courage 4. Liberty 5. Abundance 6. Selfishness 7. Apathy 8. Dependence 9. Back to bondage ## Politics/law-specific Celine's First Law - The more a government is concerned with national security, the more insecure everyone gets. Celine's Third Law - Well-meaning politicians destroy nations. Duverger's Law - Winner-take-all elections tend to create 2-party government systems, while proportional representation tends to create more. Gibson's Law - Every expert has an equal and opposing expert. Greenhouse Effect - Supreme Court [justices](people-rules.md) tend to vote with [liberals](politics-conservativeliberal.md) more often as their [careers progress](legacy.md) because they want more favorable [press coverage](stories-storytellers.md). Hauser's Tax Law - Federal tax receipts, since WWII, always seem to be 19.5% of the goods and services Americans produce. Kranzberg's Fourth Law of Technology - While technology is critical for public issues, nontechnical things determine technology decisions. Leftward Effect/Go Woke Go Broke - If an organization pushes an [ideology](values.md) that leans too far [left](politics-leftism.md) compared to its members, many of its members will leave. O'Sullivan's First Law - Any organization that's not overtly right-wing/[conservative](politics-conservativeliberal.md) will trend leftward/liberal over time. - Werry's Law - Any conservative woman with a public platform is on a trajectory toward liberalism.