# How trends work Across all of society, certain [patterns](symbols.md) take hold across many people. They run their course the exact same way, every single time. They flow through a "soft [human universal](humanity-universals.md)", and can only be augmented, but can never be stopped. In fact, barring [human universals themselves](humanity-universals.md), *everything* tied to humanity can be seen a trend: - [Values](values.md) (especially [morals](morality.md) or [taboos](morality-taboo.md)), [philosophical concepts](philosophy.md), [understanding](understanding.md), and [proven understanding](science.md) - Choices of [language](language.md), body language, gesture, or behavior - [Created things](creations.md) like [media](stories.md), [consumer goods](creations.md), [art](values-quality.md) - Forms of [thinking](understanding.md) and lines of [reasoning](logic.md) - The [friendships](people-friends.md) and [influence](influence.md) of a new person in a [group](groups-member.md) - [Agreements](people-contracts.md) among interested parties - The [image](image.md) of an [organization or social movement](groups-small.md) as witnessed by everyone observing it - [Technologies and tools](technology.md), as well as toys - Certain political things like [civil liberties](people-boundaries.md) and approval of government policies - Even the way we interpret thoughts is a "trend". People gain interest in something, then become familiar, then grow bored with it after a while. Most people must [understand](understanding.md) a trend to adopt it, so every successful trend's [essence](values.md) can be simply described. Each trend is a [symbolic](symbols.md) conclusion to a [story](stories.md) that started with a [group](groups-small.md) that recognized a [problem](purpose.md) and tried to fix it. APPLICATION: Healthy [routines](habits.md) are upward trends: - General physical well-being [to the best of our ability](body-4_health.jpg) requires [eating well](body-2_diet.md), [sleeping enough](sleep.md), and resistance to [train ourselves](body-3_exercise.md). - Mental habits keep us [our minds sharp](mind-memory.md), [alert](awareness.md), and [curious](mind-creativity-how.md). - [Productivity](success-4_routine.md) is a pattern of expanding our means of creating [results](results.md), [growing](maturity.md), and [learning](education.md). - [Overall satisfaction](mind-feelings-happiness.md) with our lives involves enhancing our [meaning](meaning.md), [awareness](awareness.md), [productivity](success-4_routine.md), and [fun](fun.md). - [Stress management](mind-feelings-happiness-stress.md) is for the purpose of making better [decisions](people-decisions.md). Almost everything we do that affects others is influenced by a [group's](groups-small.md) standards, and those standards are mostly previous trends that have reached maturity. With the possible exception of [technology](technology.md), *everything* is simply a [remix](mind-creativity.md) of a previous trend. Trends are the application of [creativity](mind-creativity.md) and [habits](habits.md) across people, and there's plenty to profit by knowing them in advance. However, they're incessantly [unpredictable](imagination.md) and messy to *precisely* predict, so it's only useful to gauge with [intuition](mind-feelings.md). The [purpose](purpose.md) for a trend proliferating ignores [what others may think](imagination.md) at first, but as it trend matures everyone brings a variety of [creative](mind-creativity.md) approaches, and the purpose for adopting the trend mutates as increasingly more people get involved in it. The speed of the trend's movement is based on how fast people will accept it, which is based on how much people [feel](mind-feelings.md) satisfied that they fulfilled their purposes. ## The stages of a trend A trend transitions through a series of stages. Each stages can last for days or weeks, but sometimes a stage can linger for *centuries*. Most trends move at the speed of [information transfer](https://meltingasphalt.com/interactive/going-critical/). It's worth noting that each person's status in a trend doesn't really mean much for other trends. Younger people *generally* adopt trends faster, but it's all based on how much people are willing to [change](people-changes.md). *Very* frequently, people who are savvy on some trends are lagging behind others, by virtue of [specialization](jobs-specialization.md) of focus. ### A. Taboo/impossible/ridiculous At first, something is unusual. If it's *really* unusual, it'll often be [taboo](morality-taboo.md). Typically, the trend starts by not even [*existing*](reality.md) within the [group](groups-large.md), and only a few [brave](mind-feelings-fear.md), [creative](mind-creativity.md), or unconventional people are exploring it. But, nearly everyone is [afraid](mind-feelings-fear.md) to [try it](results.md), outside of people who don't concern themselves with [how they'll appear](image.md), who simply haven't gotten around to trying it yet. The trend *always* start at the fringe of the group's [understanding](understanding.md). The only people who engage with it are willing to break from that group's [expectations](imagination.md), typically because they're exploring *another* [culture](people-culture.md). APPLICATION: Innovators are often [venerated in stories](stories-storytellers.md) if they succeed. For every innovator given honor, dozens or hundreds of them lived unfashionable, unimportant public lives. To [follow their example](socialrisk.md), keep that in mind to [learn](understanding.md) from their mistakes. While the thing may exist in another group, nobody will [believe](understanding-certainty.md) it to be worth trying, or will have additional untrue beliefs that imply it's [useless](purpose.md) or [bad](morality.md). The trend will have advocates, though, who sincerely [believe](understanding-certainty.md) that the thing will answer a [problem](purpose.md). Most of the time, they're [watching](people-3_boundaries.md) what they [say](language.md) about it. Most [large systems](groups-large.md) [turn bad](mgmt-badsystems.md) by crafting elaborate [stories](stories-storytellers.md) to maintain the [taboo](morality-taboo.md). For smaller trends, like variations of a different trend, people won't [feel](mind-feelings.md) opposed to it, but will wonder why that remix is even necessary. APPLICATION: If you're the architect of an idea, you didn't really "think" it yourself, since you likely conflated multiple ideas and applied them in a different way. But, if you're the first thinker of a new trend, you may well deserve credit for it. You will *not* get that credit, and someone else who comes later will have the trend named after them, but there's tremendous [meaning](meaning.md) in finding this arrangement acceptable. ### B. Possible, but weird At this point, a few outliers will have the [courage](mind-feelings-fear.md) to [try](results.md) that thing. They're about 2.5% of the group, and almost always fit a few specific archetypes: - [Young people](maturity.md) who haven't [identified](identity.md) closely with their [culture of origin](people-culture.md) and want [new things](image.md). - Geeks and nerds who either don't care [how they look](image.md) or are utterly oblivious to it. - People trying to break the [rules](people-rules.md) for fun or who enjoy exploring [uncertain](understanding-certainty.md) things. - Mentally unstable people battling [past trauma](hardship-ptsd.md). Unlike everyone else, these people have often made [habits](habits.md) of breaking [convention](people-culture.md), and usually explore the thing for fun or to [fight](people-conflicts.md) presently [established](people-culture.md) things. This unique way of living means their [personalities](personality.md) are completely different from the rest of their [group](groups-small.md). While they're *called* "innovators", they're not that innovative because most of their rule-breaking will get them in trouble and *other* people later will reap the brilliance. At most, across their lifetime, they'll probably break 1-2 conventions that become dramatic trends. The rest of their efforts are either too premature or *awful* ideas that never take off. Often, many of them are labeled heretics and outcasts. Their [risk-taking](socialrisk.md) and public [shame](image.md) provokes them to usually live solitary lives, but they can sometimes congregate in a [community](groups-member.md) of like-minded risk-takers. Their [choice](people-decisions.md) is usually driven by an overwhelming [passion](purpose.md). Large trends start with innovators who were extremely [creative](mind-creativity.md) or extremely foolish. However it happened, they broke an invisible "wall" of society in a way that was useful. APPLICATION: To be a major influencer in pretty much any domain, you must be lucky enough to have the following: - Be born with a high-Conscientiousness and high-Openness [personality](personality.md) to [drive hard](success-4_routine.md) and [take risks](socialrisk.md) - The fortune to live in a [technologically](technology.md) strong and [demographically](people-culture.md) varied [large social group](groups-large.md) - Be born about 20-40 years before a major new innovation - Have the [wisdom](understanding.md) to make the right [decisions](people-decisions.md) at the time of a new trend, without sacrificing all your resources on an ultimately failed trend - If it's a physically or mentally demanding role to lead the adoption, you must also have certain genetic dispositions as well ### C. Cool, but uncommon Some people like to break [convention](habits.md) but are still [afraid](mind-feelings-fear.md) of breaking a [taboo](morality-taboo.md). These "early adopters" represent about 13.5% of a group, and are constantly balancing the delicate relationship between the competing [desires](purpose.md) to innovate and conform. Most early adopters are closely watching the innovators to gain [influence](influence.md) with the rest of the group by attaching their [identity](identity.md) to something before anyone else. They're paying *very* close attention to a few specific things: 1. The [conflicts](people-conflicts.md) between the innovators and everyone else over time. 2. Whether the innovators' ideas are feasible. 3. Whether the innovators' ideas could be [fashionable](image.md). When their [intuition](mind-feelings.md) senses that the public will generally accept something, they'll adopt it in an attempt to [influence](influence.md) everyone else toward it. They not only have to have evidence that the idea is [true](reality.md), but that others will also like it. APPLICATION: The nerd will never make it as far in society as the nerd-watcher who steals from them. The most [creative](mind-creativity.md) uses of the thing come with the early adopters, mostly because there are very few established [rules](people-rules.md) or [expectations](imagination.md) of how to use it. Early adopters' experiments will yield remarkable [solutions](purpose.md) and abuses of [power](power.md), but nowhere *near* as prevalent as later on. However, its novelty will generate *major* public reactions from it. APPLICATION: Trendy people *[want](purpose.md)* everything to conform to their trends, but society can never run that way. Instead, trendy people spend lots of effort on failed trends before other people take on [proven](results.md) things. However, trendy people try to [distort the perceived popularity](image-distortion.md) of the trends they [wish](purpose.md) to advance. An early adopter successfully advancing a trend is unlikely. However, they're closely calculating and straddling social [expectations](imagination.md), so they never really suffer the [stigma](socialrisk.md) that innovators tend to receive. Early adopters and groups made of early adopters, though, almost *always* interpret those trends as "game-changers", and will [share](stories-storytellers.md) them with [inflated](image-distortion.md) [expectations](imagination.md) on the belief everyone will love it with mere [persuasion](influence.md). Most of the time, [looking back](stories-storytellers.md), trends are attributed more to early adopters than innovators. The name (which is usually from the early adopter) becomes a [symbol](symbols.md) for the thing that [unfairly](morality-justice.md) disregards innovators who actually *started* the trend or the previous trends that warmed everyone up to it. In [groups](groups-member.md), most trends die with early adopters, usually revisiting at least a few generations later with a different [culture](people-culture.md) of the same [group](groups-small.md). If enough people [identified](identity.md) with the thing once it died, they become a separate [niche group](groups-small.md) that's more easily [swayed](influence.md) toward future trends similar to it. APPLICATION: The most lucrative time to invest in something is when the innovators are playing with it. But, the safest time to legitimately profit off something is to follow what the early adopters are doing. The yields for following an innovator over an early adopter are *insanely* higher and *way* more [unpredictable](imagination.md), and if 30% of the people already use something you're going to get a [modest and safe](safety.md) return on your efforts. ### D. Public, and popular As the majority of people [see](image.md) the [results](results.md) of something with the early adopters, an early majority (about 34% of the group) will [change](people-changes.md) their [beliefs](understanding-certainty.md) to adopt the thing. The earliest people in the early majority may not earn all the popularity, but they frequently gain the most [power](power.md) through the trend from the early adopters paving the way already. The early majority starts something because they see proof it has worked and has been proven to benefit their [purposes](purpose.md): - The thing is stable and well-received already, or at least [looks like it is](image.md). - The [group's leaders](groups-small.md) approve of it (at least enough that they imagine it's [useful](purpose.md) and they don't [feel](mind-feelings-fear.md) threats to their [power](power.md)). - There's a defined [educational](education.md) system on how to work with it or operate it. - Other people with the same [personality](personality.md) as them have already adopted it. - The resource cost (usually price) is at or lower than the resource cost for the alternative older way trends and [rituals](habits.md). APPLICATION: To see a new trend, watch how useful technology becomes. For example, clothing styles will have no more further advancements until they create a new fabric or find a way to create affordable [computer screens](engineering-screen.md) *onto* fabric. APPLICATION: Huge, society-spanning trends often come from awful conflicts and hardship: - The Golden Age of the Renaissance in Europe arose from the tragic experiences of seeing the Bubonic Plague destroy most of the continent, likely because people focused on [meaning](meaning.md) from [mortality](legacy.md) and how to [live well](goodlife.md) in light of it. - After The Great World War (WWI), Germany was utterly ravaged. That hatred led to [passions](purpose.md) which advanced Germany's Nazi Party in an election, mostly from a desire to [justly](morality-justice.md) take back the [power](power.md) they had held. - France was [economically](economics.md) ruined after World War II. In that depression, they created the Eiffel Tower to express their [patriotic solidarity](groups-member.md). Like early adopters' [conflict](conflicts-inner.md), the early majority also care a *lot* about [how they look](image.md). However, they're *far* more [terrified](mind-feelings-fear.md) of [breaking](morality-taboo.md) the group's [rules](people-rules.md). APPLICATION: Trends require multiple people to take hold of it: 1. Innovators must be willing to break convention and explore [taboos](morality-taboo.md). 2. Early adopters must be willing to [take a risk](socialrisk.md) on the trend enough to [influence](power-influence.md) others. 3. Quite a few [sensible](logic.md), [respectable](image.md) people have to agree that the early adopters' approach is worth the [risks](safety.md) to adopt. At this point, the trend will spread across a variety of social groups beyond simple [hearsay](stories-storytellers.md) or [small talk](people-conversation.md): 1. A major [city](jobs-specialization.md) with a [history](stories-storytellers.md) of trendsetters will almost universally adopt the trend. 2. Other major cities with histories of trendsetters will quickly follow that trend. However, to meet a new variety of [purposes](purpose.md), it will often need to "[remix](mind-creativity.md)" as a new trend for those groups. 3. The remixes will keep [changing](creations.md) the trend as it shifts through an ongoing design or development. Each of these changes are their own mini-trend. 4. Other people who don't [identify](identity.md) with the [values](values.md) of the trend at all will start copying or imitating the trend and its styles. This is where the trend develops a *ridiculous* range of variety, with many people each making small contributions to the changes. 5. [Popular media](stories-storytellers.md) will showcase the trend, furthering the public's awareness of it. Once the most popular media of a society has shown the trend (e.g., movies in the 20th century), the trend is memorialized as a permanent fixture of society. From here, the trend will cycle back again, and never be totally forgotten. ### E. Social standard As the majority starts making the trend a [habit](habits.md), another late majority (about 34% of the population) will notice that most people have adopted the trend. At this point, the late majority will conform standards to that trend, but not [willingly](purpose.md). Instead, they're afraid of the [social push-back](people-conflicts.md) if they break the newly established [social rules](people-rules.md), since the trend has become so prevalent that they're at risk of committing a [taboo](morality-taboo.md) by *not* honoring it. APPLICATION: To avoid becoming obsolete, focus on things that won't change anytime during your lifetime. A trend that becomes a social standard is a constraint because everyone [assumes](imagination.md) it's a [universal](humanity-universals.md) [value](values.md). They usually also presume that everyone else assumes it as well, or is at least somewhat [familiar](understanding.md) with its ubiquity. At this stage, most [creative](mind-creativity.md) efforts that change the trend are streamlining its use, so there's very little development toward exploring new ideas: - Making it cheaper, faster, or easier to [understand](understanding.md). - Simplifying it, removing elements, or making it more [attractive](image.md) to engage otherwise uninterested people. The result of all this is that it becomes very, very boring, and all the innovators find more interesting things to do. APPLICATION: To be anti-fragile, we must *never* accept something as a "loss". Setbacks, limits, scarcity, challenges, and obstructions are all parts of [reality](reality.md), but the only failure comes through [believing](understanding-certainty.md) a [risk](socialrisk.md) is defined by its [results](results.md) more than its [effort](purpose.md). A society that maintains this attitude can repeatedly rise above *anything* (e.g., the Renaissance came from surviving the Black Plague, America's Greatest Generation came from the Great Depression and World War II). Every [organization](groups-large.md) that benefits from a trend wants to keep a trend at this stage. Many [organizations](groups-large.md) convert to [bad systems](mgmt-badsystems.md) or arise in this stage. If enough people abide by the standard, there's a chance a sub-trend will arise inside that constrained trend. This will become a microcosm of the original trend. If *that* trend becomes a social standard, and enough people continue using it, a sub-sub-trend system can persist into indefinitely specific capacities. If a [bad system](mgmt-badsystems.md) exploits a trend, they're overstepping their [boundaries](people-boundaries.md) and pushing their [power](power.md) as far as the trend will permit them. If they're sensible, they can often create a Social Standard Zombie while sacrificing [quality](values-quality.md). Otherwise, they'll make everyone sick of the trend and it'll quickly fade. The peak of a trend is right *before* the demonstration of a grandiose, obscene, audacious over-expression of that trend: - Putting as many people/elements into a [medium](creations.md) as possible. - Mixing multiple things together that generate [feelings](mind-feelings.md) of disgust by most people observing it. - Giving near-impossible promises with the trend that are near-impossible to even [imagine](imagination.md). The first signs of a trend losing power is when [humor](humor.md) starts parodying and trivializing it. ### F0. Laggards Some people will *always* refuse to adopt a trend. These people are "laggards", and will never adopt it. They usually represent about 16% of the group. Laggards only adopt because they absolutely must, and often only because the [law](people-rules.md) has become [punitive](rules-methods.md). Many laggards are defiantly set in their [habits](habits.md), but [creative](mind-creativity.md) laggards can become the innovators of other trends that run *counter* to those trends. APPLICATION: No matter what, every trend is just a majority adopting it. There will *always* be outliers who never [change](people-changes.md) from their fixed [habits](habits.md). Depending on the thing in question, extremists tend to either [disbelieve](understanding-certainty.md) their existence or maintain their outlier status. APPLICATION: There will always be "old people" industries for phased-out things. They will almost always be low-[quality](values-quality.md), and are rarely worth [specializing](jobs-specialization.md) in unless you simply need the money. Those old people will likely never [change](people-changes.md), but *will* often complain when their old trends are finally phased out. The laggards' [passion](purpose.md) dictates how long a trend can be a Social Standard Zombie. The more passion, the faster they'll successfully [build](creations.md) a trend that opposes it. ### F1. Social standard zombie There's no need to shift from many things once we've grown accustomed to them (e.g., writing, toilet paper). We eventually make habits that work with them, then consciously forget the elements of what we're following. If the trend stays a standard for years, people treat it as a necessity. Often, after many years, they'll forget what it was like *not* having it! By this point, most people never really [identify](identity.md) with it because it's become mundane and commonplace. When a trend is established, new trends [assume](imagination.md) that trend is part of existence alongside [nature itself](reality.md): - Marketing trends right now presume that most people have an internet-connected computer. - Novelty cups presume people are familiar with cups. - Steering wheel covers presume people drive cars. When looking ahead, people tend to [imagine](imagination.md) a social standard will continue forever. However, the only thing that *will* continue indefinitely is the [purposes](purpose.md) behind that trend: - People will always need to [communicate](people-conversation.md) the need to buy and sell, irrespective of computers' existence. - People always need a means to store liquids, even without cups. - Automotives aren't permanent, but we'll always need to easily and [safely](safety.md) get from one point to another. Naturally, every [organization](groups-large.md) that profits off a trend will do what they can to maintain it, since they [want](purpose.md) their thing to stay a social standard: - Most trend leaders attach their [identity](identity.md) and [legacy](legacy.md) to their trend, which means they lose even *more* [power](power.md) and [influence](influence.md) when that trend inevitably dies than if they hadn't. - They'll make new trends that dovetail into their original one. Since they're already [making](creations.md) the first thing (and often own the [intellectual property rights](legal-ip.md)), they have a [competitive](people-conflicts.md) edge on everyone else. - They'll usually [distort](image-distortion.md) how necessary or crucial their trend is. At the most extreme, they'll claim their trend [defines civilization or is the future of humanity](politics-conservativeliberal.md). - When possible, they'll shut down new trends that could take away their [power](power.md), often [viciously](people-conflicts.md) or with [evil intent](morality-evil.md). People *inside* the organization aren't exempt, even when they're fiercely [loyal](image.md) to the [group](groups-small.md). Plus, most [older people](maturity.md) simply like things the way they are. ### F2. Sickening A trend starts outliving its [usefulness](purpose.md) to the point that people become [disgusted](mind-feelings-disgust.md) with it: - Other trends may have arisen that outpace what that trend can do. - Sometimes, new [technology](technology.md) made that trend obsolete. - People can grow tired of the [hype](mind-feelings.md) or [familiarity](habits.md) of the trend. - On occasion, the entire trend can become nothing more than evoked [feelings](mind-feelings.md) of nostalgia. As a trend starts dying, people will [create](creations.md) *away* from the trend. It's difficult to establish *when* a trend dies because everyone individually diverges their [purpose](purpose.md) to something else, and they often do it [instinctively](mind-feelings.md). The majority of people who *still* use the trend are acting from [habit](habits.md). Innovators and early adopters either desperately seek new trends because they don't [trust](understanding-certainty.md) the current trend, or have already moved on to another trend to fit their [purposes](purpose.md). Soon enough, nearly everyone else will follow. The [leadership](groups-large.md) of a dead trend is usually unaware of the warning signs from their most [risk-prone](socialrisk.md) members leaving. Typically, they'll believe that they've finally "purged" the last threats to their power and created complete [order](understanding-certainty.md), often right before they suffer a crushing defeat from an outside source. APPLICATION: When most people of any [group](groups-small.md) start growing tired of a trend, the trend is losing its [influence](power-influence.md) and about to shift. If a trend has many people who [invested](people-decisions.md) tons of [power](power.md) into it, the trend will fade *very* quickly. ### G. Quaint/relic A trend will eventually fade from [use](purpose.md), but not from everyone's memory. For decades, people will [talk](people-conversation.md) about that trend and compare it to others, often symbolizing [past life stages](maturity.md). After about 20 years, a generation of people will nostalgically remember it so much (and have the resources to re-live it) that the trend will resurge into the public consciousness again. Anyone who chooses to use the trend at this point will either be an innovator looking for a variation from current conventions or a laggard unwilling to move on to another trend. Most late adopters and laggards have a [habitual](habits.md) association with an old trend, so they tend to not [change](people-changes.md) as fast as everyone else. They tend to be older, with that trend peaking when they were about 10-20 years old. This tends to dissuade the [youth](maturity.md) from their trends and magnifies the trend's [image](image.md) as a product of its era. If anyone ever [creates](creations.md) with an old trend without remixing it, they're usually [bad systems](mgmt-badsystems.md) with [low-quality](values-quality.md) offerings that satisfy [aging](maturity.md) laggards. They're either [retrofitting](purpose.md) another more popular trend or working in a cottage [industry](jobs-specialization.md) to meet laggards' [expectations](imagination.md). After a certain point, it won't be worth sustaining. ### H. De-contextualized/cycle If the public has become fully aware of something, it will keep itself as part of the [culture's tradition](people-culture.md). It'll show up in small ways, in a variety of formats but mostly through [small talk](people-conversation.md), often as a reference to the past: - A [nostalgic](image.md) remembrance of a different time. - An accounted [history](stories-storytellers.md) of the right way to [live](goodlife.md) or [do](results.md). - A cautionary tale of what to *not* [do](results.md). The oral tradition of sharing past trends keeps the trend alive, but as a "soft" [understanding](understanding.md) that misses many key details about the reason for that trend in the first place. The tradition of re-telling the [story](stories.md) [empowers](power.md) that trend to begin again in the future as a cycle with another generation. Without it, that new generation will rediscover it and the trend will start again as if it were [new](image.md). As time persists, the trend will lose all sense of its original meaning. It'll get smashed together with other fashions of the time. Since our memory of [history](stories-storytellers.md) is [fuzzy](legacy.md), it'll lose progressively more context until it becomes the long-distant echoes of a mysterious practice. The [youth](maturity.md) will see it as a mark of human achievement or shame, depending on how the [culture](people-culture.md) values its elderly. Furthrr, older things are usually disregarded by the [youth](maturity.md), even when they're better or not new, and is a major reason why the [classics](creations.md) are often overlooked in every media. APPLICATION: If someone calls something "new", look for what it's similar to across the lens of [history](trends.md). Sometimes, a trend-resistant [organization](groups-large.md) (e.g., [education](education.md) [industry](jobs-specialization.md)) will take give old trends from the past undue [praise](image.md) by virtue of their age. Often, they'll make a tedious mess of something originally intended for fun. Other times, history simply fades the [story](stories-storytellers.md): - Most clothing fashions of any artistic depiction are only the ceremonial wear, and people wore more mundane work clothes most of the time: Rome's senate didn't always wear togas, guards didn't always wear full gear, Reformation-era settlers didn't always wear buckled hats. - Hygiene in the Middle Ages was a well-honored value. However, it's [funnier](humor.md) to see the [peasantry](classes.md) clothed in more mud than clothing, so the [trope](stories.md) maintains itself. - Ancient Greek and Roman art was vibrant and colorful. However, the paint wore off the marble, meaning the popular image was that white marble was the standard. - William Shakespeare's works are dry and dull for us to read. In his time, they were full of pop culture references, slang, base [humor](humor.md), and silly [stories](stories.md). - Poetry was once a song and dance, more like our modern-day rock concerts. Somewhere in between, [educators](education.md) removed the performance aspect and translating [languages](language.md) removed the rest of any flow it would have had. - Most classic films and music were the [best-quality](values-quality.md) offerings of a relatively homogeneous spread at the time they were [created](creations.md). We look at them as original because nobody imitates that style anymore, but most of them were just doing a [good job](results.md) at standard practice for the time. ## A trend's meta-stages Every trend's cycle, if spread across more than a few years, travels through a few meta-stages: 1. Prototype - The trend is a [creative](mind-creativity.md) derivative of its parent trend, and heavily defined by it. Adherents are often responding or rebelling *against* the parent trend, but that counter-reaction still drives it. People are still conforming to something, even if it's dogmatic anti-establishment sentiments. 2. Renaissance - If the trend gains enough [influence](influence.md), brilliant minds are free to openly explore the meta-trend at their leisure. Most of the effort here is intellectual, wealth tends to reward genius at this stage, and the meta-trend becomes the new "establishment". This will be the Golden Age of the trend where most of its [legacy](legacy.md) persists whenever that glory eventually fades. 3. Romanticized - After the meta-trend reaches maturity, it will dovetail with many other trends and blossom new remixes. The Romantic Era of the meta-trend will be defined by explorations into whatever people [feel](mind-feelings.md) the strongest. Most of that meta-trend's future stereotypes and silly oversimplifications come from this era. 4. Deconstruction - The meta-trend will devolve into a type of Post-Modern Era. Its [creative](mind-creativity.md) output will be self-referential and critical of itself. Most of the [leadership's](groups-large.md) efforts will maintain their fading control and hold onto whatever [power](power.md) is left in the movement. That leadership will also imagine the meta-trend can last forever (often from misunderstanding everyone's responses), and the stage will be set for a new meta-trend to carry the spirit of whatever the meta-trend's Prototype stage once had. ## The timing of a trend When we [predict](imagination.md) trends, we're relatively reliable at guessing *what* trends will come, but are awful at predicting timing, even with robust [analysis](logic.md). Each trend consists of sub-trends that can spin off on their own (all of them drilling down to each individual's [understanding](understanding.md) and [inner conflicts](conflicts-inner.md)), so we can only [look ahead](imagination.md) a few months at the most before every model becomes useless. A trend is a series of many [stories](stories.md) playing out, so we can only reliably see a short-term trend, and can only somewhat reliably [guess](imagination.md) the long-term. So, we usually [understand](understanding.md) enough to see something coming, but don't know where to position ourselves to [profit](power.md) the most from it. APPLICATION: Be careful who you [trust](trust.md) and swear [loyalty](image.md) toward. Often, following trends can get you in [trouble](people-rules.md) with your [group](groups-member.md). It's far better to take a [social risk](socialrisk.md) *outside* a group (and [possibly form a new one](groups-small.md)) than let that group prematurely destroy you. The only way we'd be able to reliably predict the timing of a trend would be to [understanding](understanding.md) all the trends and [technology](technology.md) that haven't happened yet in between where we are and what we envision. We'd also have to consider all major factors that could tweak the trend's adoption ([example here](https://ncase.me/attractors/)). The length of a trend's phase comes from how new something is, according to each person's [calculation](people-decisions.md): - Outside of innovators, each person requires a certain percentage of the people (or certain people) around them to like something before they can [trust](trust.md) that adopting it is worth the [social risk](socialrisk.md). This calculation comes from how much conflict they'll expect from the [decision](people-decisions.md). For example, early adopters may need to know that 2-5% of their friends already like it and that 30% of their friends like them doing it, or maybe they'll do it if their friend John is doing it. - Then, except for the late majority and laggards, each person *stops* adopting that thing when a specific people group has now *adopted it*. The early majority, for example, start questioning their trend when laggards begin adopting. - Laggards will never adopt the thing until it's practically [required](people-rules.md) by the group. Even then, they'll never [identify](identity.md) with it. The speed of a *new* trend developing to replace that one often comes from how much the laggards hate the current trend. - New mini-trends around an initial trend can restart the trend cycle all over again at any time. Often, they'll send the public in a previously unexpected direction, destroying unrelated trends and revitalizing loosely connected ones. ## Tweaks to a trend Trends spread like diseases. A few people at first, then a large group, then practically everyone until they're immune to it. Also, like diseases, ideas require human hosts, and wouldn't exist without [groups](groups-small.md) to spread it. A trend can't be stopped, but it *can* be dramatically altered. The [value system](values.md) of a group determines how quickly they'll adopt new trends, specifically regarding [risk tolerance](socialrisk.md): - Governments never need to move quickly unless they're in a [war](people-conflicts-war.md), so they tend to drag at adopting in any other field. - Healthcare has many life-and-death situations where they can be [blamed](people-contracts.md) for killing people with [uncertain](understanding-certainty.md) things. Thus, it's in their best interests to *always* adopt slowly, even if it kills people who couldn't receive the new life-saving medicine or procedure. - [Education](education.md)-based groups are massive and have an aversion to large-scale changes, largely from [how long they've been around](people-culture.md) and their [attitude about new things](mgmt-badsystems.md). ### Slowing a trend's adoption If a trend wields a new [type of power](power-types.md) that would make an older form of [power](power.md) obsolete, [large groups](groups-large.md) with [ill intent](mgmt-badsystems.md) *will* try to stop their from fading, especially with [ideas](values.md) and [technology](technology.md): - The newspapers tried to stop the radio industry, which tried to stop the TV, which tried to stop online internet streaming. - Big Ice tried to stop refrigerators. - The Catholic Church tried to stop the propagation of Bibles that spoke against pay-to-play sin forgiveness, then tried to stop the Protestants who believed it. The more [taboo](morality-taboo.md) the trend is, the longer it'll take for everyone to adopt it. But, if it *does* get adopted, it'll create *many* more [conflicts](people-conflicts.md) across society as it becomes a [social standard](people-culture.md). There are a few ways to slow a trend, but nothing that can fully stop it: - Get in front of the trend and prevent the early adopters from [understanding](understanding.md) the thing. This can range from [severing](morality-taboo.md) [group interaction](people-conversation.md) with innovators and early adopters all the way to excommunicating or killing them. - [Influence](influence.md) people away from the trend with well-made [stories](stories.md) that inspire [fear](mind-feelings-fear.md). Often, they'll [moralize](morality.md) an otherwise non-moral matter or compare the trend to an unrelated trend. - Destroy everything related to the trend, including forbidding [language](language.md), [portraying](image-distortion.md) [false stories](stories-storytellers.md), and [killing people](morality-evil.md). ### Speeding a trend's transition Generally, the longer a trend stays popular, the more excited everyone will be about a replacement trend. In that sense, [bad systems](mgmt-badsystems.md) are often magnifying the [power](power.md) of the new trend. Forward-thinking people who want power will try to hasten a trend. New trends require [creativity](mind-creativity.md), so they're fostered more than provoked. Like any other creative thing, starting trends requires giving more information or [influence](influence.md) to people, either to aid [understanding](understanding.md) or promote the trend's [status](image.md). Often, a [bad system](mgmt-badsystems.md) will abuse their [influence](influence.md) so much that observers create new [stories](stories.md) that build trends *against* that trend, usually with a [humorous](humor.md) and awful sub-trend. When that happens, the trend's days are numbered because the sub-trend creates a [stereotype](image.md) people were [feeling](mind-feelings.md) for a while. Other times, a newly discovered deception or scandal can push people out of the trend in droves. When this happens, people will [choose](people-decisions.md) *any* trend outside of that one, and it shifts unsettlingly fast. ### Trends that affect trends Most large-scale trends tend to cycle themselves into other associated trends: 1. Artists use [technologies](technology.md) to capture the [unknown](unknown.md) in new [creations](creations.md). 2. Scientists are inspired by art to explore [reality](reality.md) to gain [understanding](understanding.md). 3. [Inventors](socialrisk.md) create new [technologies](technology.md) from existing [science](science.md). 4. Artists use [technologies](technology.md) to capture the [unknown](unknown.md) in new [creations](creations.md). [Ideas](values.md) and [technology](technology.md) also have a unique "piggyback" effect. Those trends are abstracted enough that they can revolutionize society: - Once the air conditioner was invented, populations in deserts dramatically increased. - Once someone adapted a guitar to run the strings' vibration through an electrical amplifier, the entire music industry was transformed. - Pretty much everything that needs a switch or time-based component now uses silicon-based [computers](computers.md), which makes almost every non-perishable consumer product much cheaper to assemble. - [Technology](technology.md) will often create [trend cycles](https://trendless.tech/trends/) that didn't exist before. For example, our [idea](values.md) of "seconds" and "milliseconds" comes from how well we can now [measure](math.md) time. - When [mechanical objects](engineering.md) first came into existence, most [science](science.md) of the time treated the body and mind as a mechanical object. The same is true right now with [computers](computers.md). Many trends feed into each other. Often, society-rocking trends are usually the convergence of *many* people with multiple types of [desires](purpose.md) that get fulfilled from one thing. Typically, they'll fade as fast as they started because our [image](image.md) of [reality](reality.md) often deceives us, especially when we hear a [story](stories-storytellers.md) that gives us false [hope](understanding-certainty.md). APPLICATION: To make the most strides in [advancing](purpose.md), society needs a precarious balance that gives enough conflict to create resistance, but not enough conflict that [bad systems](mgmt-badsystems.md) can take over. The only [safety](safety.md) is in [change](people-changes.md), and the only progress arises from [convention](habits.md). ## Long-term cycles Often, trends will swing on a cyclical "pendulum". They'll oscillate back-and-forth across extremes spanning decades or centuries because the two trends address opposing [human universals](humanity-universals.md). Often, [values](values.md) associated with things will *completely* invert themselves. - An age of [understanding](understanding.md) often follows an age of [fear](mind-feelings-fear.md), then back again. - An age of audacity often leads to an age of civility, and back again. - People tend to [politically](politics-conservativeliberal.md) lean liberal when they [trust](trust.md) the [future](imagination.md) more, then conservative when they [trust](trust.md) the [past](stories-storytellers.md) more. - Clothing fashions move from conservative, back to liberal, back to conservative again, and often split and go in *opposite* directions at the same time. - Writing styles across centuries tend to shift from blunt, to poetic and florid, and back to terse again. APPLICATION: When we hear of [political movements](politics-conservativeliberal.md) that overstep their boundaries, the tide will shift when most people get sick of it enough to [react](people-conflicts-war.md). This pendulum effect means [moralizing](morality.md) non-moral things can be dangerous to anyone's sanity, and [exiling](morality-taboo.md) heretics often comes back around later. APPLICATION: We can't fairly judge people from the distant past by present fashions. The embodiment of their [culture](people-culture.md) was so heavily removed from ours from [technology](technology.md), [science](science.md), [religion](religion.md) and time that we must learn to think the way *they* thought at the time to discover why their innovators were so [influential](power-influence.md). The speed the pendulum moves is determined heavily by [universal human characteristics](humanity-universals.md), augmented by the longest-standing [cultural norms](people-culture.md) and [technological developments](technology.md). Any deviation from those universals will quickly revert back. Also, when the pendulum sits in the trends of [individual efforts](purpose.md), these cycles more articulately represent themselves into a unique cycle pattern of "resistance": 1. A sedentary period of relative inactivity that makes up most of the time. This may be defined as "rest", "recovery", or "reward". 2. Slow, growing exposure to the conflicts represented by the scope of [purpose](purpose.md), defined as "resistance" or "pressure". 3. A final, grand clash between the old and new. This is the [mythologized](stories-myths.md) part of the experience, and the portion everyone remembers and [retells](stories-storytellers.md) later. It's the "crash", "breakdown", "surge", "resistance" or "advancement". 4. (repeat #1) APPLICATION: Everything has its season, and watching for the timing of a season is critical to [living well](goodlife.md). Investing effort, or not, depends on what phase of the Recovery/Buildup/Action cycle we're in. Without this resistance pattern in a constant flow, the pattern that creates growth (e.g., athletes, [entrepreneurs](socialrisk.md)) halts as [habits](habits.md) take over (e.g., [addicts](addiction.md), [victims](politics-leftism.md)): 1. Without a sufficient sedentary period, there's no preparedness for another buildup (e.g., chronic pain, [PTSD](hardship-ptsd.md)), but too much of a sedentary period creates too much aversion to positive changes (e.g., muscular degeneration from bed rest, [culturally](people-culture.md) established safe spaces/trigger alerts overstepping [natural law](people-boundaries.md)). 2. No slow exposure to increasing challenges sabotages the means of [accomplishing](purpose.md) (e.g., burning/exiling heretics, insufficient [resources](power-types.md)), and growth that's too slow won't make the [impact](results.md) it could have otherwise (since we all must contend with our [eventual end](legacy.md)). 3. Without a full-intensity resistance at the end the [story](stories.md) never becomes a [legend](stories-storytellers.md) to inspire others later without [lying about it](image-distortion.md) and can often leave [doubt](unknown.md) within the participants' mind that can sabotage longevity (i.e., "did I really reach my peak?"). But, if the resistance goes so heavily that it destroys someone, it becomes a crushing [story](stories.md) of defeat and despair (e.g., a crushed [political resistance](people-conflicts-war.md), cultural [taboos](morality-taboo.md) based on others who came before). A cycle may appear unsustainable as a positive feedback loop (where the cycle becomes more extreme). But, when scoped out far enough, the meta-cycle is always a negative feedback loop (where elements of the cycle maintain that cycle). Sometimes, a cycle moves *repeatedly* on a somewhat [predictable](imagination.md) cycle: - Seasonal and stock market cycles. - [Electoral cycles](politics-conservativeliberal.md) in a [freely voting society](politics-systems.md). - [Generational](maturity.md) cycles as the new generation re-[learns](understanding.md) a remix of the previous generation's lessons, either by not [listening to it](stories-storytellers.md) or them not [communicating it](people-conversation.md). - The patterns of [success and achievement](success-1_why.md). APPLICATION: Sometimes a trend can rise and fall across centuries, depending on its mini-trends. It's not easy to detect when it'll fail, but we can often discover how trends will go by [understanding](understanding.md) the lives of [people who lived before us](stories-storytellers.md). Part of the existence of cycles comes through [aging](maturity.md): 1. People tend to nostalgically remember the trends of their teenage years as the "best time of their lives". 2. Younger people are more likely to (loudly) adopt trends, though their influence to advance them will be very limited until their early 30's. 3. Our [understanding](understanding.md) maxes out around age 51, and we tend to resist new trends at that time. 4. For that reason, society as a collective whole always [fights](people-conflicts-war.md) between trends from 35 years ago and trends from 10-15 years ago. APPLICATION: Beyond [technology](technology.md), most of society [stays the same](humanity-universals.md) across centuries. But, it feels like it's improving or deteriorating because of which trends we're [observing](image.md), and the [youth](maturity.md) *always* think a trend is new. APPLICATION: If you believe something people had believed 100 years ago and still do, you'll likely be right 100 years from now. Those things are likely [universal to humanity](humanity-universals.md), and transcend [culture](people-culture.md). The same generally applies for wrong things as well. Generally, cycles never break, and are critical to [understand](understanding.md) the long-term way to [live well](goodlife.md) in that [culture](people-culture.md). The speed of a trend is directly connected to how fast [information](information.md) travels. Therefore, within [the information age](history-eras.md), trends will adopt faster than before. APPLICATION: At one time, consuming was a one-way [habit](habits.md) loop of experiencing, then modifying afterward. But, now with the [Over-Information Age](information.md) trend, people can review and criticize beforehand (by [researching](information.md)), but also during and afterward (by reviewing their [memory](imagination.md) and commenting on [social media](networks-social.md)). This probably won't go away anytime soon, either. APPLICATION: The average lifespan of a civilization was about 400 years. After the fall of the Roman Empire, it's been closer to about 300 years. With [technology](technology.md) allowing instant [information access](people-conversation.md), it may lower itself to 200.